I’m putting this out here before it happens. No, I do not have insider access and this does not represent the views of yada yada yada. A few youtubers put forward this idea so I am not establishing something new. Also places are transliterated from an Arabic script so don’t get mad if the English spelling changes in here from time to time; trust me they struggle just as much with consistent spelling for some English words.
First Article on the Iran War I wrote below:
The United States has amassed an invasion force in the Indian Ocean and Middle East. The combination of 2 MEU’s (I’m just gonna call them a MEB even if they choose not to formally combine them it’s way easier to understand that way) and the 82nd Airborne represent the tip of a spear that would either seize an initial foothold for follow on forces or could seize and hold smaller objectives (like islands). I am making the assumption that Trump is committed to a ground invasion (leave that debate for another article, would make this way too long to go into that).
Assuming the invasion is a go, there are only a few options. Take an island without naval support (Read: No Resupply/Casevac) and hope your guys don’t take a million casualties to short range fires, put Marines/Soldiers on civilian vessels to escort them and hope they don’t hit mines or get attacked by subs and USV’s OR invade part of Eastern Iran and try to start an insurgency. The last option is the most feasible but comes with significant drawbacks. I’ll lay out the general situation in Baluchistan, assess the US’ tactical problem set, and finally delve into the strategic implications and leave one final question: Is this move worth the massive domestic and international political cost of putting boots on the ground?
Baluchestan: Insurgencies Galore
The collapse of the British Empire after World War II saw wars break out around the world. The Arab-Israeli War, Pakistan-India War, and Sheikh Bashir rebellion in Somaliland all occurred in the late 1940s. This same time period would see the first Baluchi insurgency against the Pakistani state. Pakistan would quickly crush the rebellion but the seeds had been sown.
The Baluchi people are a distinct ethnic group that make up the coastal region of Pakistan and much of Eastern Iran. They are primarily Sunni although this region also has a lot of Sikhs, Hindus, and Christians comparatively. Interestingly, separatist activity has not been entirely transnational (apart from hideouts, cross border raids, etc.).
The Baluchi Liberation Army (BLA) has been active for decades within Pakistan. Their influence has waxed and waned, but it has spiked with Chinese investment. As the Belt and Road claimed the port of Gwadar as its crown jewel, the movement gained traction. Terrorist attacks were conducted on Chinese workers. Bombings of Pakistani military personnel escalated (and are still ongoing). Although the port became an albatross for China, the BLA still rallies around it.
Things went a bit differently in Iran. Chabahar is thousands of kilometers away from Teheran. Bit of an out of sight out of mind problem for the Ayatollah. The BLA caused some minor issues for Iran but until the early 2000s, Sistan and Baluchistan was the equivalent of a high crime flyover state. This changed with the emergence of the radical Sunni group Jundallah.
Jundallah (later rebranded as Jaysh Al-Adl, or JAA) is a bit unique for a Sunni Islamist group in the region. They don’t take after Sayid Qutb1 and they don’t seem Salafist. JAA is much more of a sectarian and ethnic rebel group than anything like Al-Qaeda or ISIS. I may get impaled by a Jihadist for saying this, but they spiritually are more similar to the Tamil Tigers than anything bin Laden was preaching.
Much like the BLA, JAA (they actually have rebranded again to the PFF with a less cool flag but I’m done using new acronyms) is still actively attacking Iranian personnel. In both countries the attacks are not small, sometimes dozens are killed. Iran and Pakistan have vacillated between utilizing these groups against each other and conducting joint operations to attack both. I would imagine the tension could be cut with a knife in April 2026.
This is a lot of fucking background to get to the point, I know. Unlike Ted Cruz, I actually analyze places where conflict might occur. The last note here is important though. JAA has been linked at various times to Saudi Arabia, the US, and Israel (all of which have been accused of funding and supporting their attacks on the IRGC). It's impossible to know the current relationship but it feels pretty safe to say that the CIA (and probably Mossad and the GIP) have well established connections.
Tactical Problem Set
An operation into this region would likely center around a seizure of the main city and port, Chabahar. The city and surrounding area have a population of around 200,000. There will be two initial goals: Seize a foothold for follow on forces and link up with JAA forces. There are several Iranian Navy installations in the city and an Iranian Air Force base just west of the city. No other major bases are within 50 miles.
The first phase of this operation has already occurred. Air strikes have been carried out on all of these installations. 10th Tactical Air Base is of particular concern due to its ability to launch UAVs. The CIA will carry out the rest of this phase. Their activities would include activating JAA elements for the assault, sending targeting data, and sending final reports on IRGC troop/drone presence. If possible, sabotage will also be carried out at this stage.
The USAF will surge air superiority2 to eliminate any and all targets. This will start with strike aircraft on SEAD missions and optimally would result in a safe enough air space for AC-130s and A-10s to operate in. At this point, the MEB will send in its assets. Cobras and F-35s will go first while air assault aircraft loiter with troops on board. If SOF is a part of this they go in with little birds or HALO jumps at this moment.
Once the area is saturated with fires, the MEB will land about 4 companies worth of Marines at LZ’s identified by CIA/SOF. These will likely be offset from the aforementioned bases OR they will be placed somewhere that allows for a link up with insurgent forces. Airborne will begin static jumping behind Chabahar (and perhaps near the air base) as the Marines land. Both will have a mission to seize their objectives, link up, and prepare a defense around the city. Airborne can land some bigger guns than the Marines can bring and both units will bring Stingers and Javelins.
The first major decision point comes here. A MEU is designed to insert from the air and sea. A good chunk of Marines will still be on ship and all of the vehicle assets (apart from glorified golf carts) need to be transported by ship. 82nd Airborne can drop in some vehicles and light armor potentially but it’s not a guarantee they land without damage and several aircraft will need to be dedicated to just dropping in these assets.
LCAC’s like the one pictured above can be utilized to bring vehicles, artillery, and more troops ashore. The problem comes in that these are not heavily armored and have a relatively limited range. The range becomes an issue in that the US Navy has to assess how comfortable they are bringing ships within a few hundred miles of the coast. An LPD going down would be catastrophic.
Protecting an LCAC from water based drones and Shaheds will not be easy. A common tactic of the Houthis (and now Iranians) is to pull two speedboats up, one laden with explosives and the other stripped down for speed, and aim one boat at a ship, turn the engine all the way up, and jump out. That’s not a simple thing to defeat.
The mountains are a bit further back here but it’s safe to assume Iran will send everything its got at the ARG. If the Navy is too scared to get close, the helos can be mid air refueled (as can the aircraft for the paratroopers) and this can be done purely with air. Problems will arise within a few days if no vehicles or armor arrive though.
Overall, this is the least casualty inducing option for the US military. A Kharg Island (or Qeshm Island) incursion will result in a lot of deaths from Iranian fires with little hope of resupply. This operation is still risky and will produce casualties, but there is potential for casualty evacuation. Additionally, there is a means here to evacuate everyone if shit hits the fan (will be theoretically easier than the op just done near Isfahan). And if air cover gets completely denied you can make a run for Pakistan I guess and the Treasury can wire them $100 billion to let us dock and take our boys out.
Strategic Outlook
A foothold here (assuming it is then followed up with C-130/C-17s and LCACs landing) sets up a base of operations for a further ground war and pushes the WEZ further into Iran. Unlike just about everywhere else, the mountains are not super close here. You will still be in range of ballistic missiles and drones but they will have to come from 50+ miles away. The downside is the mountains are pretty extreme as pictured below.
The strategic benefit is that you have now punched Iran in the face and are forcing them to either cede this to you or make highly risky moves. Any column from Bandar Abbas will get wiped out. Mass troop movements will be eliminated via standoff munitions. Your only option is to trickle in insurgents and lob drones.
The resolve of the Iranian people is strong. The whole ‘they’ll rise up’ narrative is utter capeshit. But this still creates a great deal of instability. You cut off a major port and just showed them to be weak.
Additionally, this puts major pressure on China. China and India have invested in some of the Eastern Iranian ports. Now it’s a total loss for them. The BLA will almost certainly be emboldened. Gwadar will be in an even more precarious position. It also may allow the US to block off Iranian oil exports (although Bessent has conceded that the US is too scared of domestic shocks to really do this).
Drawbacks
I just steel manned what I find to be a very bad idea. To be clear, I am pitching it as the least bad idea and assuming Trump’s friends with small hats are forcing him to go in on the ground.
The first issue I see is at the tactical level. How is a mass casualty event going to be handled? What if the Navy pulls a Guadalcanal and abandons everyone after taking a hit from a drone? What’s the plan if resupply and reinforcement is not imminent?
The next issue is at the operational level. I do believe this is a feasible operation. I don’t really buy that a whole lot after is feasible. Maybe you get armor in and assault Bandar Abbas? Then what? Send infantry through the most mountainous place in the world? Just because you can stage people here doesn’t mean it is a great idea. I also don’t believe that you can meaningfully eliminate Iran’s ability to send Shaheds your way from the Martian (yes that’s the real name) Mountains.
Another massive issue is the JAA. Who the fuck knows how trustworthy they are. They probably can’t be counted on to fight. Can they be counted on to not turn their guns on you? We also will face MASSIVE pressure from Pakistan to not arm or fund them (which we’ll do because uh what is Pakistan gonna do). The problem could snowball if their alliances shift. What if they make a pact with the BLA? What if they bring their fancy new toys into Pakistan and start blowing shit up?
Which leads to the second to last issue: Pakistan. Maybe there’s a way to pitch this to them; I doubt it though. They are going to freak the fuck out. This could potentially create a civil war in their country. In a worst case scenario for the US, they pull another Afghanistan and harbor IRGC assets covertly and provide targeting data to them.
Finally, we have to ask is a tactical victory worth the strategic cost? This will quite obviously be a major escalation. The Bab Al-Mandeb is getting closed. They’ll probably even try to knock out the Suez Canal. Any infrastructure left in Israel and the GCC is getting blown to smithereens. Almost every country on Earth is going to come out in force against the US for this. Diplomatic pressure is kind of fake but at the same time you are going to have to fend off UN resolutions and a lot of other shenanigans.
And that’s not to mention how the US public will react. A war that started with sub 10% approval now has troops on the ground. Trump promised not to start a land war and now he just did. There better be a clear strategic victory from it or else you just started megavietnam 2.0.
I was forced to read way too much about this man in college. He is best known as the founder of the Muslim Brotherhood and for being executed by Egypt. As an aside, he visited the US and was so resentful that he couldn’t get any ass that it sent him off the deep end.
Amazing analysis, good to get an idea of how things stand from a purely military angle.
Leagues ahead of anything mainstream media has been pumping out, that's for damn sure!
Do you see the war continuing after the ceasefire, or do you think we have an opportunity for peace?